Investor Insights

December 1, 2025

ABC Statewide Drive – Black Friday frenzy

By Roger Montgomery

I joined Jess Maguire on ABC Statewide Drive to discuss how Black Friday has evolved from a U. S. curiosity into Australia’s biggest retail event, now eclipsing even Boxing Day. I explained how the surge in discounting can pull Christmas spending forward and boost sales – but how it can also put pressure on retailer margins.
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November 24, 2025

ABC The World Today – looking past the AI hype

By Roger Montgomery

I joined Angus Randall and Julia Bergin from ABC The world to discuss why, despite artificial intelligence’s (AI’s) enormous long-term promise, early investors often face the highest risks. History shows that major technology advancements usually go through a boom–bust cycle, which is why caution – not blind optimism – is essential right now.
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November 20, 2025

ABC Nightlife – market downturn and the AI bubble

By Roger Montgomery

I joined Phil Clark on Nightlife to explain why the market’s sharp fall may reflect growing doubts about the artificial intelligence (AI) boom. I argued that while AI is a powerful General Purpose Technology (GPT) that may change the world (like cars or the internet), it might not be as lucrative as investors hope.
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November 19, 2025

Fear + Greed – what's driving the market pullback?

By Roger Montgomery

On Monday the S&P/ASX 200 tumbled two per cent, led by a sell-off in tech stocks. It’s now down about seven per cent over the past month. Concerns about the end of the interest rate cycle in Australia, a lack of information on Wall Street and the forever present geopolitical fears seem to be weighing on investors.
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November 13, 2025

Ausbiz – Disciplined investing over speculative timing

By Roger Montgomery

  Today on Ausbiz I joined Juliette Saly to discuss why artificial intelligence (AI) remains a powerful long-term thematic but is now exhibiting classic bubble warning signs. We need to question whether the exponential share-prices, circular vendor-financing deals, and the huge capital expenditure (CapEx) that we are seeing today, are sustainable.
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November 12, 2025

How to avoid the AI stock market bubble

By Roger Montgomery

Not only are stock market valuations stretched, but on the metrics that are most reliable for predicting future returns, the U. S. market is at an all-time high. We can say that factually and therefore categorically.   It’s not a matter of opinion.
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November 7, 2025

Liquidity is tightening, so risks are rising

By Roger Montgomery

Since my last column Is there a stock market bubble? Here are the warning signs, which was on the topic of recognising bubbles, subtle shifts have been occurring in the risk postures of major global investors that suggest you now need to behave more cautiously than before.
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October 29, 2025

ABC Newcastle Mornings – opportunity in small caps

By Roger Montgomery

I joined Paul Turton on ABC Newcastle Mornings yesterday to discuss how markets remain strong but expensive, with investors shifting from artificial intelligence (AI) stocks to safer sectors like healthcare and utilities. Despite record highs, valuations suggest future returns may be lower.
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