Investor Insights

Buy and hope. With 30 per cent of the U. S.

I joined Angus Randall and Julia Bergin from ABC The world to discuss why, despite artificial intelligence’s (AI’s) enormous long-term promise, early investors often face the highest risks. History shows that major technology advancements usually go through a boom–bust cycle, which is why caution – not blind optimism – is essential right now.

I joined Phil Clark on Nightlife to explain why the market’s sharp fall may reflect growing doubts about the artificial intelligence (AI) boom. I argued that while AI is a powerful General Purpose Technology (GPT) that may change the world (like cars or the internet), it might not be as lucrative as investors hope.

On Monday the S&P/ASX 200 tumbled two per cent, led by a sell-off in tech stocks. It’s now down about seven per cent over the past month. Concerns about the end of the interest rate cycle in Australia, a lack of information on Wall Street and the forever present geopolitical fears seem to be weighing on investors.

  Today on Ausbiz I joined Juliette Saly to discuss why artificial intelligence (AI) remains a powerful long-term thematic but is now exhibiting classic bubble warning signs. We need to question whether the exponential share-prices, circular vendor-financing deals, and the huge capital expenditure (CapEx) that we are seeing today, are sustainable.

I joined Niav Owens on ABC Newcastle Mornings yesterday to discuss why cash is making a comeback – despite the rise of digital payments – and why it still plays an important role in budgeting, privacy, and accessibility.

Not only are stock market valuations stretched, but on the metrics that are most reliable for predicting future returns, the U. S. market is at an all-time high. We can say that factually and therefore categorically.   It’s not a matter of opinion.

Since my last column Is there a stock market bubble? Here are the warning signs, which was on the topic of recognising bubbles, subtle shifts have been occurring in the risk postures of major global investors that suggest you now need to behave more cautiously than before.

Yesterday I joined Jess Maguire on ABC’s Statewide Drive to discuss the sharp fall in Meta’s share price after it revealed another huge increase in artificial intelligence (AI) spending.

  Today on Ausbiz I joined Sue Lannin to discuss the striking similarities between the 2011 iron ore boom and today’s artificial intelligence (AI) investment frenzy. Back then, surging optimism and over-investment in mining services ended abruptly when supply outstripped demand.

I joined Paul Turton on ABC Newcastle Mornings yesterday to discuss how markets remain strong but expensive, with investors shifting from artificial intelligence (AI) stocks to safer sectors like healthcare and utilities. Despite record highs, valuations suggest future returns may be lower.

I joined Phil Clark on ABC Nightlife yesterday to discuss what’s driving today’s market. Falling inflation, steady growth, and record central-bank liquidity continue to fuel this bull run. But with artificial intelligence (AI) spending soaring, returns need to justify valuations. We also discussed the rising demand for gold, with many investors viewing it as a hedge against uncertainty.