Investor Insights

Not only are stock market valuations stretched, but on the metrics that are most reliable for predicting future returns, the U. S. market is at an all-time high. We can say that factually and therefore categorically.   It’s not a matter of opinion.

Since my last column Is there a stock market bubble? Here are the warning signs, which was on the topic of recognising bubbles, subtle shifts have been occurring in the risk postures of major global investors that suggest you now need to behave more cautiously than before.

Yesterday I joined Jess Maguire on ABC’s Statewide Drive to discuss the sharp fall in Meta’s share price after it revealed another huge increase in artificial intelligence (AI) spending.

  Today on Ausbiz I joined Sue Lannin to discuss the striking similarities between the 2011 iron ore boom and today’s artificial intelligence (AI) investment frenzy. Back then, surging optimism and over-investment in mining services ended abruptly when supply outstripped demand.

I joined Paul Turton on ABC Newcastle Mornings yesterday to discuss how markets remain strong but expensive, with investors shifting from artificial intelligence (AI) stocks to safer sectors like healthcare and utilities. Despite record highs, valuations suggest future returns may be lower.

I joined Phil Clark on ABC Nightlife yesterday to discuss what’s driving today’s market. Falling inflation, steady growth, and record central-bank liquidity continue to fuel this bull run. But with artificial intelligence (AI) spending soaring, returns need to justify valuations. We also discussed the rising demand for gold, with many investors viewing it as a hedge against uncertainty.

By now, every investor has heard the bubble warning. Yet, when markets are soaring on optimistic expectations for future growth, high prices seem entirely reasonable. Indeed, and somewhat worryingly, in the midst of a boom, high prices validate the optimism.

  I joined Juliette Saly from Ausbiz yesterday to discuss the surge in gold buying and why it may be driven more by fear than logic. With queues forming outside bullion dealers, many investors are chasing gold as a hedge against inflation, currency debasement, or geopolitical risk – reasons that have existed for years.

Yesterday on ABC Statewide Drive, I discussed how Australia’s rising unemployment rate has lifted the odds of an interest rate cut – a move that could support valuations even as the economy softens.

I joined Paul Turton on ABC Newcastle Mornings yesterday to discuss how everyday items can shed light on global economics. I explained “doughnut economics,” which looks at balancing human needs with environmental limits, and compared it with purchasing power tools like the Big Mac and Mars Bar Indexes.

Yesterday I joined Jess McGuire on ABC’s Statewide Drive to talk about the artificial intelligence (AI) boom and what it means for investors.

  Yesterday on Ausbiz with Juliette Saly, I discussed why record-high markets may carry more risks than opportunities. While the artificial intelligence (AI) boom has powered enthusiasm, I cautioned that valuations across the broader market are now at unprecedented levels, with all companies effectively being priced as winners – something history shows is unsustainable.