In my article for Firstlinks, I explore the uneasy disconnect between human tragedy and market resilience. While war brings immeasurable suffering, history shows that equity markets often respond with surprising steadiness. From brief sell-offs ahead of conflict to rapid recoveries during it, markets seem to march on, focused on profits even as headlines scream chaos.

The market has surged, jumping 2. 6 per cent in a single day on news of a ceasefire in the Middle East. After weeks of volatility, the key question now is whether this marks the beginning of a sustained recovery – or just another short-lived rally. I joined Sean Aylmer to discuss what’s really driving the rebound.

I joined Paul Turton on ABC Newcastle Mornings to discuss the current market outlook, noting that while geopolitical tensions may keep markets cautious in the near term, any resolution could trigger a short-lived rebound before investors refocus on deeper structural risks, including rising U. S.

On ABC Statewide Drive, I discussed why geopolitical shocks have historically caused short-term market volatility rather than lasting weakness, with many conflicts followed by relatively swift recoveries and resilient equity returns.

  I joined Andrew Geoghegan on Ausbiz to discuss why geopolitical shocks often coincide with resilient equity markets. History shows that while wars and major conflicts can trigger sharp initial sell-offs, markets have often recovered quickly and, in some cases, delivered strong returns during those periods. During World War I, for example, U. S.

While the Middle East commands headlines, investors have largely forgotten the factors determining their returns prior to the outbreak of hostilities. But when the conflict ends, investors will return to considering those factors, including artificial intelligence (AI), U. S. debt, and the possibility of stagflation. Prior to the conflict, investors were debating AI’s immediate and long-term impact.