Investor Insights

In my article for Firstlinks, I explore the uneasy disconnect between human tragedy and market resilience. While war brings immeasurable suffering, history shows that equity markets often respond with surprising steadiness. From brief sell-offs ahead of conflict to rapid recoveries during it, markets seem to march on, focused on profits even as headlines scream chaos.

The market has surged, jumping 2. 6 per cent in a single day on news of a ceasefire in the Middle East. After weeks of volatility, the key question now is whether this marks the beginning of a sustained recovery – or just another short-lived rally. I joined Sean Aylmer to discuss what’s really driving the rebound.

I joined Paul Turton on ABC Newcastle Mornings to discuss the current market outlook, noting that while geopolitical tensions may keep markets cautious in the near term, any resolution could trigger a short-lived rebound before investors refocus on deeper structural risks, including rising U. S.

On ABC Statewide Drive, I discussed why geopolitical shocks have historically caused short-term market volatility rather than lasting weakness, with many conflicts followed by relatively swift recoveries and resilient equity returns.

  I joined Andrew Geoghegan on Ausbiz to discuss why geopolitical shocks often coincide with resilient equity markets. History shows that while wars and major conflicts can trigger sharp initial sell-offs, markets have often recovered quickly and, in some cases, delivered strong returns during those periods. During World War I, for example, U. S.

While the Middle East commands headlines, investors have largely forgotten the factors determining their returns prior to the outbreak of hostilities. But when the conflict ends, investors will return to considering those factors, including artificial intelligence (AI), U. S. debt, and the possibility of stagflation. Prior to the conflict, investors were debating AI’s immediate and long-term impact.

I joined Paul Turton on ABC Newcastle Mornings to discuss how Middle East tensions and fuel shortages could impact markets, noting that while a large share of oil supply is at risk, prices have been more contained than in past crises.

I joined Jess Maguire on ABC Statewide Drive last week to unpack what a recession really means and whether Australia is already experiencing one on a per-capita basis.

  I joined Juliette Saly on Ausbiz to discuss how markets could respond when the war ends, noting a short conflict may trigger a relief rally while a prolonged one could see markets fall further before recovering. I also highlighted that beyond near-term volatility, investors should be paying closer attention to the growing risks around the U. S.

I joined Philip Clark on ABC Nightlife to discuss the shift toward a more volatile market environment in 2026. With inflation likely rising again, growth slowing and oil prices climbing, the key conditions that supported recent equity gains are fading. We also explored potential war scenarios involving Iran and how they could impact markets, inflation and interest rates.

The financial world has woken up to a “flash-freeze”. The news that an Iranian drone reportedly struck a U. S. -linked commercial oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz has done more than just spike the price of oil; it’s arguably shattered the fragile market equilibrium we’ve seen since the start of the year.

I joined ABC News to discuss the market reaction to the escalating conflict in the Middle East. Surging oil prices and concerns about supply disruptions have rattled global markets, prompting investors to reassess risks and reduce exposure to equities. Watch here: ABC The Business.