Australia and the United States (U. S. ) currently have one thing in common.
Consumer confidence is in a world of pain.
In the U. S. , the Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) has fallen to the lowest level ever recorded since the University of Michigan began tracking the data in 1952. The Index, see Graph 1.
While it may not inform your investing decisions, it’s undeniably enjoyable to look at what bulls were saying during a previous bubble and comparing those comments to what is being said today.
On December 11, 1974, influential Austrian-born British economist and philosopher, Friedrich von Hayek, best known as a champion of free-market capitalism and classical liberalism, and a fierce critic of socialism and state intervention, delivered “The Pretence of Knowledge” as his Nobel Memorial Lecture.
As the list of bears publicly declaring the end of the stock market’s bull run grows, so does the wave of charts, indicators and correlations used to explain or justify the growing chorus of crash predictions. The bear camp’s advocates now include, most vocally, Scott Galloway, Ray Dalio and Michael Burry, and perhaps more reservedly, Torsten Sløck.
Four consecutive years of high double-digit returns in the stock market is a rare occurrence. Indeed, it’s happened once in 100 years. If this year ended on a high, it would be the second time investors enjoyed four consecutive high-returning years.
Scott Galloway is an American academic, author, podcast host, and serial entrepreneur. He’s best known as a Clinical Professor of Marketing at the New York University Stern School of Business and a prominent commentator on big tech, modern economics, and social trends.
Before I begin; I use the term ‘workers’ in this article. It’s not intended to be disparaging. It’s a reference to a label that the Labor Government gives their core constituency. It’s the voting base Labor frequently refers to and says they support.
If you were thinking of buying a, say, a $2 million property to renovate and flip in 18 months, Labor’s 2026 budget just made that a perilous strategy, while also making investing in an AA rated Private Credit Fund way more attractive. The 2026 Federal Budget has significantly shifted the goalposts for you.
Red Corner (Bull) Ed Yardeni
I have written about and referenced both gents for years, and if you’d like to hear from them first-hand, you can subscribe to their musings on Substack. In the red corner is Ed Yardeni, founder of Yardeni Research and in the blue (bearish corner) is Michael Burry. Figure 1.
Higher global inflation and lower growth will reflect the scale of impact dependent on the length and severity of the U. S. /Iran war.
The near-term forecasts for global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) use a Reference Scenario, Adverse Scenario and a Severe Scenario, as illustrated in Graph 1 below. Graph 1.
As we approach the middle of the year, markets and the global economy appear to be locked in a “tug of war” between the geopolitical shock of the war in the Middle East and the rapid maturation and deployment of artificial intelligence (AI).
