Investor Insights

Archive: October, 2025

October 30, 2025

Did the artificial intelligence bubble just pop?

By Roger Montgomery

In U. S. trading overnight, Nvidia achieved a market capitalisation of US$5 trillion, after which Microsoft, Meta Platforms and Google’s parent company Alphabet delivered their September quarter earnings. The results were impressive, as expected. Microsoft reported Q1 revenue of US$77. 67 billion, beating estimates of US$75. 33 billion, with earnings per share (EPS) of US$4. 13, surpassing the US$3.
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October 29, 2025

The artificial intelligence web of deals

By Roger Montgomery

Earlier this month, Nvidia – the company at the heart of the artificial intelligence (AI) boom – announced it had agreed to invest up to US$100 billion in OpenAI to help the Large Language Model (LLM)-maker fund its data centre build out. In turn, OpenAI agreed to fill those data centres with Nvidia Chips.
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October 27, 2025

Could cracks in U.S. auto loans expose an overvalued bull market?

By Roger Montgomery

As headlines mount, I wonder whether the nascent disorder in U. S. subprime auto loans becomes a bigger fissure into which a stretched stock market could fall. With stock valuations hovering at historically stretched levels, even a hint of a macroeconomic or financial fracture could precipitate a correction.
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October 24, 2025

What the smart money does at the beginning…

By Roger Montgomery

There are many consequences of gold’s vertical ascent to new all-time highs. One of course, is the queues of first-time buyers forming outside gold bullion stores around the world. A more subtle consequence, however, is the emergence of arguments that justify the rally and inspire those queues.
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October 23, 2025

Are cracks forming in the stock market bull run?

By Roger Montgomery

Over the last month, the U. S. stock market has shown signs of shifting priorities. That’s because, surprisingly, the top-performing sectors weren’t the usual suspects. They weren’t the high-flying artificial intelligence (AI), technology, or defence industries, but the more stable and defensive healthcare, utilities, and gold sectors.
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October 22, 2025

Gold’s glitter fades – biggest one-day drop since 2013

While bubble definitions abound, most fall into two camps: those that measure overvaluation and those that observe the behaviours and conditions that typically give rise to it. The most straightforward definition of a bubble is asset prices climbing far above some measure of value, such as earnings, dividends, gross-value-added (GVA) or discounted cash flows.
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October 22, 2025

Hidden in the sands: Iluka’s rare earth revival

By Sean Sequeira

At face value, Iluka Resources (ASX:ILU) is best known as a mineral sands producer. However, the market continues to undervalue the hidden strategic and financial assets embedded across its diversified portfolio. With a current market capitalisation of over A$3 billion, Iluka trades below the implied value of its tangible holdings alone  – ~A$1 billion in mineral sands inventory, ~A$1.
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October 21, 2025

Could the Federal Reserve’s pivot from quantitative tightening spell trouble for stocks?

By Roger Montgomery

Outgoing U. S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s recent remarks have sparked debate. Speaking at the National Association for Business Economics conference on October 14, Powell hinted that the Federal Reserve’s (the Fed) long-running quantitative tightening (QT) program – its methodical unwinding of the balance sheet bloated by pandemic-era stimulus – may be “coming into view” for an end.
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October 20, 2025

Are gold and Bitcoin buyers onto something?

By Roger Montgomery

We are in very unique times. In 1963, the late Sydney Homer published the first edition of his book A History of Interest Rates. Covering 4000 years of interest rate history, and now in its fourth edition, the book has become a classic in the fields of finance and economics.
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October 16, 2025

Gold is king. But are you paying too much?

By Roger Montgomery

In recessions, it is said, ‘cash is king’. We mustn’t be in a recession because the price of gold has trounced cash.   In the last 10 U. S. trading sessions, six all-time highs have been registered in the gold price. And gold isn’t the only precious metal receiving a bid.
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October 10, 2025

Canary in the coal mine? New Zealand joins rate cut trend

By David Buckland

In the past 14 months, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has cut its cash rate on seven separate occasions by an aggregate 3. 0 per cent from 5. 5 per cent to 2. 5 per cent, as seen in Table 1. Table 1. Reserve bank of New Zealand rate cuts Cash rate (%) Peak 5.
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