Investor Insights

Archive: September, 2025

September 30, 2025

This time is different!

By Roger Montgomery

Anecdotal evidence. Dismissed as mostly irrelevant, anecdotal evidence becomes useful often only in hindsight. Until then, it’s a novelty, statistically unsound, unreliable, lacking objectivity and unverifiable. But boy, it’s fun to inquire. That was then In the 1920s, the stock market was ‘roaring’, enjoying widespread optimism and even euphoria amid new innovations.
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September 26, 2025

The bull case for small caps

By Roger Montgomery

If you were listening carefully during reporting season, you might have noticed a growing buzz around small-cap stocks, both here in Australia and in the United States. More investors are now seeing small caps as a hidden gem. Small caps seem undervalued, overlooked, and are showing signs of a strong recovery.
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September 24, 2025

In gold we trust

By Roger Montgomery

With trust in central financial institutions being undermined, and with the U. S. dollar’s status as the world’s unassailable reserve currency being called into question, it comes as no surprise that gold is the asset cementing its place in the spotlight. As Figure 1. , reveals the exponential ascent of gold’s price. Figure 1.
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September 24, 2025

Sky high bond yields: a reckoning for equity investors?

By Roger Montgomery

A falling U. S. dollar, China and Russia stacking gold and angling to take Taiwan, surging U. S. debt and a President dismantling the independence of America’s central bank. It’s no wonder bond yields are high. Fiscal recklessness is stirring in the bond markets, and long-dated government debt appears to be under siege once again. Yields on 30-year U.
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September 23, 2025

Are the Magnificent Seven still magnificent?

By Roger Montgomery

In 2025, so far, the seven most influential U. S. tech giants – The Magnificent Seven, or Mag 7 (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Tesla and Nvidia) – have continued to assert their dominance and reinforce their role in determining the S&P 500’s trajectory.
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September 22, 2025

Turbulence in global bonds and a steady beat in US earnings

By Roger Montgomery

If you’re tracking equities, it’s vital to keep an eye on the bond markets, as they’re signalling genuine unease. That nervousness is now rippling through global economies. Just look at the past couple of weeks: Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba stepped down after his party’s weak election showing, and France’s François Bayrou was ousted in a no-confidence vote.
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September 18, 2025

To help fix the housing crisis, we need smarter migration policy

By Roger Montgomery

As investors, we have a particular interest in Australia’s condition, its desirability as a destination for living and its quality as a destination for investing. For some time now, I have feared better destinations exist elsewhere. Whether deliberate or unwitting, the government is not prioritising the betterment of the nation.
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September 16, 2025

Aura Private Credit funds receive ratings from Lonsec

By Dean Curnow

We are pleased to announce that independent research house Lonsec has completed its inaugural reviews of the Aura Private Credit Income Fund (for wholesale investors) and Aura Core Income Fund (for wholesale and retail investors). Both strategies have received an ‘Investment Grade’ rating, meaning Lonsec have conviction the strategies can meet their respective investment objectives.
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September 15, 2025

Are small-cap stocks poised for a comeback?

By Roger Montgomery

The equity bull market has been tough for small company stocks and their investors. The current decade started out with promise. After the short, sharp pandemic bear market in 2020, small cap stocks significantly outpaced the tech-fuelled S&P 500 Index during the post-pandemic bull market ending in December 2021.
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September 9, 2025

Looking at the artificial intelligence boom through Nvidia' results

By Roger Montgomery

When it comes to the artificial intelligence (AI) boom, few events command as much attention as Nvidia’s quarterly earnings calls. With so much riding on the boom enduring, including Nvidia’s $US4. 15 trillion market cap, analysts and traders understandably dissect every nuance – from the precise wording of forward guidance to the subtle inflections in CEO Jensen Huang’s voice.
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September 5, 2025

Will U.S. rates be cut this year?

By Roger Montgomery

I recently penned a blog post in which I highlighted the market-related concerns of American economist, chess Grandmaster, professor of international economics at Harvard University, former International Monetary Fund (IMF) Chief Economist and co-author of This Time is Different: Eight centuries of Financial Folly, Kenneth Rogoff.
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