Investor Insights

Higher global inflation and lower growth will reflect the scale of impact dependent on the length and severity of the U. S. /Iran war.   The near-term forecasts for global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) use a Reference Scenario, Adverse Scenario and a Severe Scenario, as illustrated in Graph 1 below. Graph 1.

  In my latest video insight, I explain why I believe the budget could fundamentally reshape property investing in Australia. Changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax may discourage investment in established properties, slow housing and credit growth, and create unintended consequences for banks, property-related businesses and younger Australians trying to build wealth. Transcript Hi. I’m Roger Montgomery.

As we approach the middle of the year, markets and the global economy appear to be locked in a “tug of war” between the geopolitical shock of the war in the Middle East and the rapid maturation and deployment of artificial intelligence (AI).

Trump recently boasted on Truth Social of the US$45 billion he made for the U. S. by investing in Intel. Source: Truth Social  While the Nasdaq 100 is up 13. 32 per cent this calendar year but the gain masks much larger gains for individual artificial intelligence (AI) compute stocks.

In economics, the wealth of a nation is built and sustained through production, and that production requires three ingredients: Land, Labour, and Capital. These are the finite building blocks of prosperity. Land provides the raw materials, Labour provides the muscle and the mind to transform them, and Capital represents the tools.

With the prospect of a full-scale war in the Middle East increasing, with bond yields heating up, and with famed short seller Michael Burry increasing his short position against the U. S. SOXX Semiconductor Index, could this month be the month that investors will look back on with regret, wishing they’d diversified?

An oft-made and persistent mistake investors make is assuming what’s worked recently will continue to work indefinitely. Referred to as ‘representativeness” it’s a psychological recency bias trap. Essentially, the comfort of the current winners prompts us to ‘bottom drawer’ them and simultaneously blinds us to the inevitability of economic cycles.

For as long as I have been around, the local supermarket and grocery store were the bastions of “what you see is what you get.

  In this video insight I challenge the idea that Labor’s federal budget is delivering genuine intergenerational fairness, arguing instead that it overlooks the fundamental drivers of Australia’s housing pressures.

Worley Limited (ASX: WOR) has spent much of the past decade trying to redefine itself. Once known primarily as a traditional engineering contractor tied to cyclical project work, the company expanded aggressively into energy services through the acquisition of Jacobs’ ECR division in 2019, just before the world turned against fossil fuels.

Travellers to Switzerland overwhelmingly describe the alpine nation as breathtaking, safe, and efficient – a dream destination with dreamlike Alpine landscapes. Those with a keen eye will also notice that one of the most beautiful places they have ever visited is expensive, but it’s clean, the public transport is punctual, and the villages are charming.

  In this video insight, I explain why, while economists continue debating whether a recession is coming, many Australians are already living through one, as falling retail volumes, reduced discretionary spending and rising everyday costs take hold.