Investor Insights

Right now, many in the financial markets are expecting a two percentage point bump in interest rates by June next year.   But I have my doubts. The RBA is unlikely to raise rates meaningfully until annual wage growth rises above three per cent – which is a long way off.

In only a few short weeks, the investing landscape has changed, triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the cosying-up by President Vladimir Putin to China’s Xi Jinping.   How this plays out, only time will tell.

February saw unprecedented geopolitical developments colliding with stock specific news-flow, leading to elevated volatility and in many cases, a sharp sell-off. We entered February with expectations of a challenging results season as companies reported on the difficulties encountered due to supply chain, COVID-19 disruptions and rising costs in the backdrop of sharply higher inflation and rising interest rate expectations.

  In this week’s video insight Roger discusses the terrible events unfolding in Ukraine, resulting from Russian military action, which are above all else a human tragedy. There isn’t always a straight-line relationship between geopolitical shocks and financial market responses. Roger reveals the past market performance following major geopolitical or historical events since World War II.

With the new year underway, much attention has been centred on the fact that U. S. inflation hasn’t been this high since the early 1980s. In addition, expectations of tighter monetary policy have cast a cloud of uncertainty over equity markets, igniting bouts of volatility.

Autosports Group (ASX:ASG) operates over 50 car sales outlets in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and the Gold Coast. Its share price has been on a rollercoaster ride since floating in 2016 and currently sits below the $2. 40 listing price. ASG is profitable and reasonably priced, but investors should be mindful of the threats facing its business model.

You may not be familiar with New Zealand’s Freightways Ltd (NZX:FRE), but it’s a company The Montgomery Fund has held for a long time. Freightways has been a strong performer for many years, and we’re attracted to the diversity of the business and entrepreneurial drive.

Edwin Starr’s classic 1969 anti-war song, War, asks: “War: What is it good for? ” and responds emphatically “absolutely nothing. ” It’s hard to argue with the sentiment. But it turns out Starr was not completely correct. You see, despite the terrifying carnage and destruction, war can often be a fruitful time to invest.

With the 81 per cent share price decline from $13 to $2. 50, and the 84 per cent decline from $11. 40 to $1. 80, respectively, it seems increasingly likely the Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) Sector will consolidate with a ZIP Co Limited (ASX:Z1P) – Sezzle Inc (ASX:SZL) merger.

Following on from material swings in the fortunes of property developers and managers including Dexus (ASX:DXS) and Vicinity Centres (ASX:VCX), Goodman Group (ASX:GMG) reported a doubling in profit for the first half of FY22.  The Goodman Group result was very strong.

After a bumper six months, BHP (ASX:BHP) is awash with cash. And it will soon be rewarding its shareholders. In its recent results announcement, the big Australian miner said it will pay a record interim dividend of US$1. 50 per share. But are shareholders better off with a big dividend or a share buy-back?

  In this video Roger addresses the question on all investors’ minds around the interaction of inflation, short term interest rates and equities. If consensus expectations of inflation and interest rates are wrong this presents a great opportunity to purchase stocks whose PEs have contracted. Transcript Roger Montgomery (00:07): It is February 2022.