Investor Insights

May 26, 2020

Earnings still matter

Indicators worldwide continue to reflect the damaging effects of the coronavirus pandemic and associated restrictions on economic activity and business profits. Yet puzzlingly equity markets have continued to rise. This suggests that the equity market does not seem to care about earnings – yet. History shows that in the long run earnings will still matter.
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May 26, 2020

Why I don’t expect a V-shaped recovery

By Roger Montgomery

The massive dislocations caused by the coronavirus pandemic are having only a temporary impact on stock markets, which are pricing in a V-shaped income, earnings and economic recovery. But is this optimism warranted? Or will we continue to see businesses negatively impacted for some time to come?
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May 19, 2020

The retailers to watch as the economy opens up

By Dominic Rose

In just a few short months, the COVID-19 pandemic and associated lockdown have triggered seismic shifts across the retail landscape. Some changes are likely to be temporary; others may accelerate previous structural trends.  As we emerge from hibernation, I thought I’d try to identify the businesses that should prove to be better investments in the years ahead.
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May 18, 2020

What is our “variant perception” to the market?

First, it was Warren Buffett not buying stocks and, indeed, liquidating large portions of his portfolio to build cash. Then, last week, we had Stanley Druckenmiller tell The Economic Club of New York that “the risk-reward for equity is maybe as bad as I’ve seen it in my career.
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May 14, 2020

How much worse can it get for REITs?

By Gary Rollo

The COVID-19 crisis – with the accompanying lockdown – has had a severe impact on many real estate investment trusts (REITs), particularly those exposed to discretionary retailing. The question is: have plummeting share prices opened up investment opportunities, or is there more pain to come?
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May 14, 2020

Old habits don’t die hard, they don’t die

By Roger Montgomery

During the depths of the market’s reaction to the Coronavirus outbreak I listened in on company and journalist conference calls and held multiple webinars and Microsoft Teams sessions with clients, planners and brokers.  Quite often I heard comments along the lines of, “this will change the way we live, work and travel forever”.
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May 13, 2020

How to profit from a rebound in oil prices

By Roger Montgomery

After 30 years of investing, I’ve learned that three or four times each decade a market reaches a historic level, either high or low, that investors shouldn’t ignore. Right now, the most obvious opportunity is the historically low oil price. Investors seeking to profit from an oil price recovery have several avenues to consider.
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May 12, 2020

Is Qantas a buy at the current price?

Among the more obvious victims of the COVID-19 pandemic have been the world’s airlines. In Australia, Virgin Airlines in April became one of the first large businesses to enter administration, and Qantas (ASX:QAN) has scaled back its operations to a tiny fraction of normal capacity and loses money every week while this continues.
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May 8, 2020

All you need to know

At the weekend Warren Buffett led the annual shareholder meeting for Berkshire Hathaway, the company that he has led for more than half a century, in front of an unpacked stadium and without his business partner and vice chairman, Charlie Munger, at his side. That is not all that was different about this year’s event.
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May 7, 2020

Is it time to switch to optimism?

By Roger Montgomery

After a few tough months, Australia is starting to come out of hibernation, and investors are looking ahead – as reflected in our rebounding sharemarket. But they’ll need to be selective in their stock selections, because some businesses will do far better than others in our post-lockdown world.
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May 5, 2020

Central Bank Liquidity and the slippery slope of solvency: Part I

By Amit Nath

Much has been written about the unprecedented size and scale of the actions taken by the U. S. Federal Reserve Bank in recent weeks to support the U. S. economy and markets. Starting with cutting interest rates by 150 basis points to 0 per cent, promising to purchase an “unlimited” amount of U. S.
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