Investor Insights

April 22, 2020
WHITE PAPERS

Investing in pandemic markets

By Roger Montgomery

Stuck with one per cent returns on cash balances, investors migrated to equities for their superior yields and hoped-for capital gains. What was forgotten in the mad dash for a better return, was that ‘one per cent is better than minus twenty.
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April 22, 2020

Are equities disconnected from the real economy?

In this continually-evolving crisis, we update our investors again with a brief summary of how we are assessing the risks for our global equity portfolios. The coronavirus The most important datapoint in determining the economic cost of this pandemic is its duration. This will dictate the length of time that consumers and businesses face restricted activities.
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April 20, 2020

Why Flight Centre needed to raise capital – and fast

With the Australian share market rallying strongly in April off the 25 March low, there has been a spate of capital raisings by cash-strapped companies looking to reduce debt and/or ‘pay the bills’.  One of those is travel retailer, Flight Centre (ASX:FLT).
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April 15, 2020

Has NEXTDC caused some stormy weather in shortville?

By Gary Rollo

Short selling is a consistent feature of the equity market and much was written earlier this year about Tesla’s equity journey with its short sellers. But what about the short selling story at NEXTDC (ASX:NXT), one of Australia’s most shorted stocks?  Did shorting NXT pay off? NEXTDC short thesis NEXTDC has been a popular short.
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April 14, 2020

The global economy is in critical care

Much has been said about the public health crisis that has been caused by the novel coronavirus and the COVID-19 disease. As dreadful as this pandemic will be (and already is) for so many lives around the world, the damaging effects on lifestyles has commenced. Let’s see some recent economic data.
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April 9, 2020

Bank investors – your dividends could soon be put on ice

Each day the coronavirus pandemic sets another domino to fall. The latest could be bank dividends. It’s now very likely that our banks will cut – or even postpone – their dividends this year. If they do, it will be a major blow to many retail investors and retirees.
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April 7, 2020

What is the recent market strength telling us?

If the recent market rally has taken you by surprise, you’re not alone.   Since hitting a low around 23 March, the S&P/ASX200 Index has rebounded almost 20 per cent, despite a steady flow of grim health and economic news coming out of Europe and the US.  So does that mean the market has bottomed?
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April 7, 2020

Are we there yet?

By Roger Montgomery

That’s the question on many investors’ minds these days. And it’s certainly one that our team is starting to ponder as the prices of many high quality businesses become more reasonable. However, before we start investing significant amounts of our clients’ capital, there are four things we want to see.
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April 6, 2020

A V-shaped recovery looks increasingly unlikely

Investors holding on to a V-shaped recovery may have been heartened by the recent stock market rebound, but the shortest bear-to-bull market in history looks increasingly like a false start with more pain to come. It is becoming increasingly evident that economic data, not virus data, will be the key determinant of the shape of the recovery.
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April 3, 2020

Where to next?

By Roger Montgomery

To describe recent market volatility as high is to understate the facts.   Since the peak on February 19, the US market has registered the most rapid sell-off ever, its biggest three-day gain since the 1930s, the biggest one-day percentage gain since 1933 and the second ever largest one-day fall.
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