Investor Insights

Talk to anyone on the street these days and the conversation will inevitably turn to how inflation is increasing their cost of living in some form or another. Inflation has risen steadily since the beginning of 2022 despite the determined efforts of Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to bring it back towards its target range of 2-3 per cent.

Over the past decade, regulatory capital treatment has seen Authorised Deposit-taking Institutions or major Banks (ADIs) pull back from originating specialised asset-based loans, instead gaining exposure via asset-backed facilities secured by asset-based loans originated by non-bank lenders. Due to ADIs’ preference to invest only in large, mature facilities with a AAA rating, there is an inherent funding gap.

  In this week’s video insight I joined Montgomery’s head of distribution Scott Phillips to discuss two stocks we currently hold in the Montgomery Small Companies Fund including insurance broking, underwriting agency and risk management businesses AUB Group (ASX:AUB) and lithium producer Allkem (ASX:AKE). AUB Group falls into the category of stable compounders, those businesses with defensive growth characteristics.

Back in the 1960s, AMP Limited (ASX:AMP) built the tallest building in Australia, with magnificent views over Sydney harbour. It was a symbol of the firm’s dominant place within the local financial sector.

Around 75 per cent of the World’s lithium reserves, according to the U. S. Geological Survey, can be found in Latin America (58 per cent in Chile, Bolivia and Argentina) and Australia (17 per cent). Meanwhile, China currently has 80 per cent of the global refining capacity.

With inflation finally coming down, it looks like the U. S. Fed Reserve could soon stop lifting interest rates and start cutting, possibly as early as this year.   That’s great news for equity markets, which tend to rally when rates are lower. And it’s particularly good news for technology stocks and small caps. U. S.

On behalf of their clients, advisers, researchers and consultants appear to be taking notice of the returns Sean Sequeira, Alan Kwan, Daniel Chan and the team are generating in the Australian Eagle Trust Long Short Fund.

After a busier than usual fourth quarter, activity returned to a more normal level for the Polen Capital Global Growth Fund in the first quarter of 2023. This is partly because we are so confident in the current state of the Fund’s Portfolio.

Tuesday 02 May saw the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announce a 25-basis point increase to the Cash Rate, bringing the rate to 3. 85 per cent. This caught the market and mortgage borrowers off guard, which had priced in no further increase. However, it remained consistent with commentary released by the RBA Governor, Phillip Lowe, in April.

On the back of an unprecedented, macro-driven environment in 2022, the first quarter of 2023 has proven no less volatile. While plenty of uncertainty remains, particularly surrounding economic growth, the trajectory of interest rates, and the subsequent impact on financial markets, global equity markets started the year in positive territory.

2023 began with a strong start as the U. S market tended to reward quality fundamentals in January. Concerns around inflation and central bank policy re-emerged in February when the U. S. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell remarked that rates may be kept at “a restrictive level for a period of time.

  In this week’s video insight Roger discusses why calendar year 2023 could be a good year for investors. Disinflation has always been positive for stocks, particularly innovative growth stocks. And guess what? We’re in a disinflationary phase right now.