Investor Insights

October 23, 2025

Are cracks forming in the stock market bull run?

By Roger Montgomery

Over the last month, the U. S. stock market has shown signs of shifting priorities. That’s because, surprisingly, the top-performing sectors weren’t the usual suspects. They weren’t the high-flying artificial intelligence (AI), technology, or defence industries, but the more stable and defensive healthcare, utilities, and gold sectors.
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October 22, 2025

Gold’s glitter fades – biggest one-day drop since 2013

While bubble definitions abound, most fall into two camps: those that measure overvaluation and those that observe the behaviours and conditions that typically give rise to it. The most straightforward definition of a bubble is asset prices climbing far above some measure of value, such as earnings, dividends, gross-value-added (GVA) or discounted cash flows.
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October 22, 2025

Hidden in the sands: Iluka’s rare earth revival

By Sean Sequeira

At face value, Iluka Resources (ASX:ILU) is best known as a mineral sands producer. However, the market continues to undervalue the hidden strategic and financial assets embedded across its diversified portfolio. With a current market capitalisation of over A$3 billion, Iluka trades below the implied value of its tangible holdings alone  – ~A$1 billion in mineral sands inventory, ~A$1.
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October 21, 2025

Could the Federal Reserve’s pivot from quantitative tightening spell trouble for stocks?

By Roger Montgomery

Outgoing U. S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s recent remarks have sparked debate. Speaking at the National Association for Business Economics conference on October 14, Powell hinted that the Federal Reserve’s (the Fed) long-running quantitative tightening (QT) program – its methodical unwinding of the balance sheet bloated by pandemic-era stimulus – may be “coming into view” for an end.
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October 20, 2025

Are gold and Bitcoin buyers onto something?

By Roger Montgomery

We are in very unique times. In 1963, the late Sydney Homer published the first edition of his book A History of Interest Rates. Covering 4000 years of interest rate history, and now in its fourth edition, the book has become a classic in the fields of finance and economics.
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October 16, 2025

Gold is king. But are you paying too much?

By Roger Montgomery

In recessions, it is said, ‘cash is king’. We mustn’t be in a recession because the price of gold has trounced cash.   In the last 10 U. S. trading sessions, six all-time highs have been registered in the gold price. And gold isn’t the only precious metal receiving a bid.
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October 10, 2025

Canary in the coal mine? New Zealand joins rate cut trend

By David Buckland

In the past 14 months, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has cut its cash rate on seven separate occasions by an aggregate 3. 0 per cent from 5. 5 per cent to 2. 5 per cent, as seen in Table 1. Table 1. Reserve bank of New Zealand rate cuts Cash rate (%) Peak 5.
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October 8, 2025

Is artificial intelligence stealing jobs?

By Roger Montgomery

On November 30, 2022, the world marvelled at the release and conversational prowess of OpenAI’s ChatGPT. What the world might have missed, however, was the subtle shift that began rippling through the U. S. economy.
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October 2, 2025

Rates reset across the West

By David Buckland

Central banks across the Western world have been busy recalibrating policy settings, with interest rate cuts a common theme over the past 12-15 months. But the reasons for these moves, and the consequences, vary widely between economies. In the following analysis, I examine the recent cash rate changes across Australia, the U. S.
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October 2, 2025

The crypto treasury frenzy

By Roger Montgomery

This U. S. summer, a new investment frenzy – akin to the SPAC (Special Purpose Acquisition Company) exuberance of 2020/21 – has gripped Wall Street as companies transform their balance sheets into crypto vaults. And as September unfolds, the corporate dash into cryptocurrencies shows no signs of slowing.
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October 1, 2025

Optimism surrounds artificial intelligence numbers

By Roger Montgomery

As I delve a little deeper into the aggregate artificial intelligence (AI) capital expenditure (capex) numbers and the revenue and profits subsequently required to recoup them, one thing stands out: a world of AI forecasts that are universally optimistic. That’s not usual in any hype-inspired boom, but these numbers are extraordinary. Table 1.
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September 30, 2025

This time is different!

By Roger Montgomery

Anecdotal evidence. Dismissed as mostly irrelevant, anecdotal evidence becomes useful often only in hindsight. Until then, it’s a novelty, statistically unsound, unreliable, lacking objectivity and unverifiable. But boy, it’s fun to inquire. That was then In the 1920s, the stock market was ‘roaring’, enjoying widespread optimism and even euphoria amid new innovations.
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