Investor Insights

February 25, 2026

The Great AI reckoning: when innovation becomes disruption

By Roger Montgomery

The stock market is experiencing a dramatic bifurcation. While traditional sectors surge – energy companies are up over 20 per cent and materials firms 15 per cent – a different story is unfolding in the technology and financial services sectors.
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February 25, 2026

ARB’s half year 2026 results

By Roger Montgomery

ARB just dropped its half-year 2026 results, and if you only looked at the stock price as  – down 13 per cent by the close of 24 February 2026 – you’d think the wheels had fallen off the 4WD. But as any off-road enthusiast knows, sometimes you have to gear down to get through the mud.
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February 25, 2026

The piano accordion of business life

By Roger Montgomery

Business is like a piano accordion. Sectors and individual companies expand and grow, then contract, necessarily becoming smaller than they once were. If you keep this metaphor in mind when investing, it can help you understand the business’s stage of life.
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February 23, 2026

The liquidity vacuum: Why markets may experience a reality check

By Roger Montgomery

Over the weekend, Michael Howell from CrossBorder Capital updated his global liquidity analysis, concluding the sell-off isn’t over for Bitcoin, and elsewhere, accelerating global economic growth will draw liquidity from other asset markets, limiting their upside. In Bitcoin, while some forecasters eye a rally to $90,000, Howell and the team at CrossBorder Capital have other ideas.
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February 23, 2026

The future of AI according to AI

By Roger Montgomery

Investors around the world are desperately trying to discern the future, and in particular, the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on it. On the one hand, you have the hyperscalers warning of an apocalyptic future involving mass layoffs, business collapse and the creation of an omnipotent AI god.
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February 19, 2026

The 18-month countdown

By Roger Montgomery

Recognising this isn’t the first time I have expressed concern about the ultimate fate of humans in an artificial intelligence (AI) world, I pondered several AI-related questions over the weekend.
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February 18, 2026

Data Centre Apocalypse

By Roger Montgomery

Another week, another artificial intelligence (AI) powered disruption. This time, two big announcements from China that may threaten the valuations of the big U. S. hardware-centric tech giants.   The news First, the release of AI-produced hyper-realistic movie-quality video from the Chinese company ByteDance-owned AI Seedance 2.
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February 18, 2026

The liquidity tide turns: A reckoning for Private Equity

By Roger Montgomery

For years, the financial markets operated under a “lower for longer” mantra that pushed investors further and further out on the risk curve. Starting with bonds, then equities, as a tidal wave of money pushed prices higher, investors were forced to consider alternatives such as private equity, cryptocurrencies, non-fungible-tokens (NFTs), and collectables.
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February 16, 2026

Growth vs. governance: Navigating the ASX’s HY26 results

By Roger Montgomery

Following the release of its Half-Year 2026 (HY26) results, the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) finds itself at a crossroads, balancing record-breaking volumes with significant regulatory and management hurdles. Volumes and new models Despite the noise, the ASX’s core business is thriving.
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February 13, 2026

Summing up the bear case for AI

By Roger Montgomery

The artificial intelligence (AI) industry is currently grappling with what some experts call a ‘trillion-dollar math problem’. The numbers might not stack up because customers might simply lack the funds to spend on AI tools to allow hyperscalers to achieve a decent return on their AI infrastructure investment.
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