Investor Insights

Yikes! Did the U. S. Federal Reserve (Fed) just propose a material reduction in its balance sheet? After the war is over, investors will revert to concentrating on earnings and other thematics again, and a recent Fed research paper may give investors something to worry about. The U. S.

In late March 2026, the ANZ Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence Index hit the lowest level since the survey began in the early 1970s.   Last week (5 April 2026), it rallied to the second worst week on record, as motorists received a $0. 26 per litre reduction in the fuel excise.

What’s war good for? With apologies to Motown songwriters Norman Whitfield and Barrett Strong, absolutely nothing from humanity’s point of view.

The upcoming listing of Firmus on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) is being pitched as a generational opportunity to capitalise on the artificial intelligence boom, yet a closer examination of the company’s artificial intelligence (AI) Factory model reveals a series of architectural and financial cracks that prospective investors should scrutinise.

I know everyone is focused on Iran and oil at the moment, but when the conflict eventually ends, investors will cheer…and return to the themes that previously dominated markets. And that theme is artificial intelligence (AI).

Pivots galore Few global macroeconomists have carried as much recent optimism as Ed Yardeni, who, as president of Yardeni Research, has spent the better part of this decade championing a ‘Roaring 2020s’ thesis – a nod to the roaring 1920s, on the back of productivity gains, technological innovation, and a resilient American consumer, Yardeni’s thesis has included a very bullish end…

The question on the back of every analyst’s mind is when will the war end. Sure they’re promoting their key picks and hosting company briefings but there’s a cloud hanging over them and which they’re unable to escape. For those analysts confronting the conflict head-on will be looking for any signal in the noise.

While Israel pursues a high-stakes military campaign and President Trump plays ‘Deal or No Deal” with an Iranian regime that might not even have a leader in charge, investors are doing the only sensible thing left: Hiding. With the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)’s ‘asymmetric’ threat to the Strait of Hormuz continuing and the U. S.

As Agentic artificial intelligence (AI)’s threat to jobs spreads ever wider, the concept of Universal Basic Income (UBI) is shifting from theory to, frighteningly, a central pillar of Silicon Valley’s vision for our future.

I know everyone, at the moment, is focused on the Middle East, oil prices and inflation, and some are also considering the second and third-order effects on, for example, plastic and food supply chains.

I was fascinated by this morning’s Australian Financial Review (AFR) article, which pointed out markets appear to be disconnected from reality in the Middle East.

When investors are confident, greater risk is taken, greater debt levels are serviced, and greater liquidity is prevalent. And the opposite is also true.   The response to a loss of confidence is to reduce risk, pay down debt, and “batten down the hatches”. Liquidity can quickly get tight.